State budget strategy 2026–2029
Budget strategy for Estonia 2026, sourced from Ministry of Finance of Estonia. It includes 94 extracted table(s). It links to 6 related legal act(s) in the public corpus.
Estonia2026Budget strategy
What this is
Budget strategy from Ministry of Finance of Estonia, currently linked to 6 legal act(s) and 94 extracted table(s).
Tables
94
Related laws
6
Format
DOCX document
File size
4.4MB
Beyond comparable window2026
Use the year policy-composition section for the closest functional context around this document, then drop to the Baltic policy-composition section when you need aligned cross-country framing.
Current read
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Budget role
Use carefullyThis is a medium-term planning source. It can be more current than the annual law, but it is not automatically part of the shared comparable comparison lane.
Budget trail
Strong sourceThis document sits in Estonia 2026, with 6 linked laws and 94 extracted tables on this page.
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Visible structure
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Source details
- Country
- Estonia
- Year
- 2026
- Document type
- Budget strategy
- Original source title
- State budget strategy 2026–2029.docx
- Source institution
- Ministry of Finance of Estonia
- File format
- DOCX document
- Original file
- Open original
- Mime type
- application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
- File size
- 4.4MB
References & sources
Direct links to the official pages and files behind the data shown on this page.
Why it matters
Strong parse coverage
This file is best read as a medium-term fiscal planning source. It can be more current than annual laws, but it is not always part of the shared comparable comparison lane.
The extracted summary and preview content for this document look relatively complete for the current public corpus.
What it contains
Extracted tables
94 table(s) with preview rows are available on this page.
Detected headings
No reliable heading list was generated.
Institution signals
1 institution reference(s) were detected in the extracted summary.
Detected institutions
Riigi Teataja
Linked legislation
Riigieelarve seadus
Framework law
riigieelarve seaduse
Framework law
State Budget Act–Riigi Teataja
Framework law
2026. aasta riigieelarve seadus–Riigi Teataja
Annual budget law
Annual budget law (2026)
Annual budget law
First extracted text sample
Introduction Essence of the State Budget Strategy The State Budget Strategy (budget strategy) sets out the main directions for the state’s fiscal policy and outlines the objectives of the Government of the Republic to be implemented during the budget strategy period, alongside a funding plan for the next four years. The budget strategy connects fiscal and sectoral policy objectives and links them to financial possibilities based on macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts. Fiscal policy choices have an impact on the state’s economic policy. Both the budget strategy and the budget and structural plan approved last autumn are based on the economic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance. The State Budget Strategy for 2026–2029 is based on the Ministry’s summer 2025 economic forecast. The budget strategy is updated annually – if necessary, by specifying the targets and plans for the next three (3) years and supplemented by one (1) year. In this way, the medium-term plans are constantly adapted to the changes in the economy, the fiscal environment, and the different areas of activity. Preparation and renewal of the budget strategy The strategic development documents related to the budget strategy are the sectoral development plan and four-year programmes prepared for the implementation of the development plan. Performance areas are used in a coherent way in both strategic planning and financial management, with the aim of better linking sectoral development plans to the budget strategy and budget. Therefore, the budget strategy provides information on performance areas and, from 2020 onwards, the financial plan is broken down by performance areas and programmes. The annual budget is much more detailed compared to the budget strategy. Each year, the ministries update the programmes by one year, ensuring a minimum four-year outlook in strategic planning. The update is based on the performance report for the previous year, the budget strategy in force at that time and the strategic goals and indicators agreed upon in the sectoral development plan for the next four years. To prepare the budget strategy, the Government Office and the ministries provide the Ministry of Finance the necessary data and information, including the draft programme(s) and financing plan falling under the areas of responsibility of the areas of government, performance reports, the legal entity’s fina…
Sheets and preview rows
Table 1. Performance areas SBS 2026–2029
23 rows, 2 columns
| Area of government | SBS Performance areas 2026–2029 |
|---|---|
| Ministry of Education and Research | Educated and active population |
| Ministry of Education and Research | Estonian language and Estonian identity |
| Ministry of Education and Research | Research, development, and entrepreneurship |
| Ministry of Education and Research | Governance |
| Ministry of Justice and Digital | State governed by the rule of law |
| Ministry of Justice and Digital | Digital society |
Table 2. Indicators and target levels of the welfare performance area
12 rows, 7 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Indicator / target level_2 | Latest Actual Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | Cohort fertility rate Source: Statistics Estonia | 1.83 (2024) | |
| 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | Index of caring and co-operation, % Source: University of Tartu, Statistics Estonia, Ministry of Social Affairs, European Social Survey | 59.20% (2024) | |
| 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | Absolute poverty rate (total men/women), % Source: Statistics Estonia; Estonian Social Survey | Men | 3.00% (2023) |
| 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Absolute poverty rate (total men/women), % Source: Statistics Estonia; Estonian Social Survey | Women | 2.40% (2023) |
| 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Absolute poverty rate (total men/women), % Source: Statistics Estonia; Estonian Social Survey | Total | 2.70% (2023) |
| 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.7 | 18.7 | Relative poverty and social exclusion rates, % (total men/women) Source: Eurostat | Men | 19.70% (2024) |
Table 3. Indicators and target levels for the programme for children and families.
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest actual level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Difference between the number of children desired and the actual number Source: To be specified when the methodology for the indicator is developed | N/A |
| 16.10% | 15.80% | 15.50% | 15.2% | Relative child poverty and social exclusion rates, % Source: Eurostat | 16.5% |
| Remains or falls | Remains or falls | Remains or falls | Remains or falls | Percentage of children separated from their families, % Source: Social Insurance Board | 0.14% |
Table 4. Indicators and target levels for the labour market programme .
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.8 | 71.8 | 71.9 | 71.9 | Labour force participation rate among people aged 15–74, % (total) Source: Statistics Estonia, Estonian Labour Force Survey | 74.60% (2024) |
| 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | Duration of working life, in years (total) Source: Eurostat | 41.40 (2024) |
Table 5. Indicators and target levels for the elderly programme.
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 | 41.7 | 42.2 | 43.1 | Active Ageing Index Source: European Commission, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) | 37.9 (2018) |
Table 6. Indicators and target levels of the social welfare programme
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Share of people aged 16 and over with a high caring burden (20 hours or more per week), % Source: Statistics Estonia, Estonian Labour Force Survey | 2 |
Table 7. Gender equality and equal treatment programme indicators and target levels.
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.30% | 7.30% | 7.30% | 7.30% | Share of people who consider themselves as belonging to a group that is discriminated against in Estonia Source: European Social Survey | 7.30% (2021) |
| 11.40% | 10.70% | 10.00% | 9.2% | Gender pay gap Source: Statistics Estonia | 13.20% |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Percentage of women and men who feel that a woman should be the main responsible person for domestic work, % Source: Gender equality monitoring | 17% (2021) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Percentage of women and men aged 15-19 who feel that men perform as well as women in care-related jobs Source: European Social Survey | 77% (2021) |
| 49.00% | 51.00% | 53.00% | 55.00% | LGBTI+ Legal Status Index, % Source: ILGA-Europe | n/a |
Table 8. Indicators and target levels in the health performance area.
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men 76.7 Women 83.5 | Men 77.0 Women 83.6 | Men 77.4 Women 83.8 | Men 77.7 Women 83.9 | Life expectancy (separately for men and women), in years Source: Statistics Estonia | Men 75.1 Women 83.4 |
| Men 59.1 Women 61.0 | Men 59.8 Women 61.5 | Men 60.6 Women 62.0 | Men 61.3 Women 62.5 | Healthy life years at birth (men and women separately), years Source: Statistics Estonia | Men 56.8 Women 60.6 |
Table 9. Indicators and target levels for the healthy choices programme.
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191.2 | 183.4 | 175.7 | 168 | Preventable mortality per 100,000 inhabitants Source: Eurostat | 266.70 (2022) |
Table 10. Indicators and target levels for the healthy environment programme
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1292 | 1257 | 1221 | 1186 | Number of years of life lost due to premature mortality and morbidity caused by the environment, including the working environment, per 100,000 inhabitants Source: University of Washington Institute of Health Econoindicators and Assessment | 1947 (2021) |
Table 11. Indicators and target levels for the human-centred health care programme.
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | The share of public sector health care expenditures in terms of GDP is increasing, % Source: National Institute for Health Development | 5.7 (2023) |
| 10.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | Decreasing need for uncovered health care services, % Source: Eurostat | 8.5 |
Table 12. Indicators and target levels for the educated and active population performance area .
18 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | 8.80% | 8.70% | 8.50% | Share of 18-24-year-olds with a low level of education not in education or training, total (%) Source: Eurostat | 11.00% |
| 76.10% | 76.60% | 77.30% | 77.30% | Share of adults with professional and vocational education (25–64-year-olds) (%) Source: Statistics Estonia | 74.10% |
| 23.60% | 23.80% | 24.00% | 24.20% | Participation rate of adults (25-64 year-olds) in lifelong learning in formal and non-formal education (%) Source: Statistics Estonia, Estonian Labour Force Survey | 23.30% |
| increases | increases | increases | increases | Participation rate of adults (25–64-year-olds) in lifelong learning in informal education (%) Source: Statistics Estonia, Estonian Labour Force Survey | 59.90% |
| 30.00% | 30.50% | 30.50% | 31.00% | Share of those employed in smart specialisation growth areas one year after graduation of all employed (%) Source: Study on Success in the Labour Market | 27.00% (2023) |
| increases | increases | increases | increases | Self-directed learner (%): Percentage of 8th grade students with academic resilience Source: National satisfaction surveys | 32.2 |
Table 13. Estonian Language and Estonian Performance Indicators and Target levels
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Functional reading skills of 16–65-year-olds in Estonian* Source: PIAAC study | 61.00 (2023) |
| 91.00% | 91.00% | 91.00% | 91.00% | Proportion of the people in the population using Estonian Source: Statistics Estonia | 91.50% |
Table 14. Indicators and target levels of the climate, energy and biodiversity performance areas.
7 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 45.00% | 47.50% | 50.50% | 53.00% | Environmental awareness index (%) Source: Ministry of Climate | 41.10% |
| 11.70 | 11.30 | 10.90 | 10.50 | Total greenhouse gas emissions, million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: National GHG inventory | 13 (2023) |
| 29% | 29% | 30% | 30% | Share of land area nationally protected for nature conservation purposes, % Source: Ministry of Climate | 28% (2023) |
| 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | Area of forest land, million hectares Source: KAUR SMI | 2.33 (2023) |
| ABA | ABA | ABA | ABA | Affordable access to fuels and energy for consumers, taking into account environmental requirements Source: World Energy Council | ABA |
Table 15. Indicators and target levels for the Green Reform and Climate Policy Programme.
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 13.00%/ 19.50% | 14.00%/ 20.00% | 15.00%/ 20.50% | 16.00%/ 30% | Share of green procurement in total public procurement (% of number/ % of financial volume) Source: The State Shared Service Centre | 9.50%/ |
| 45% | 47.5% | 50.50% | 53.00% | Environmental Awareness Index (%) Source: Ministry of Climate | 41.1% (2024) |
| 11.7 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 10.5 | Total greenhouse gas emissions, million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Actual source: National GHG inventory The targets are calculated linearly from the actual level (2023) as annual targets to reach the target of 8 million tonnes. | 13.0 (2023) |
Table 16. Indicators and target levels of the energy, mineral resources and ambient air Programme.
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| ABA | ABA | ABA | ABA | Affordable access to fuels and energy for consumers, taking into account environmental requirements Source: World Energy Council | ABA |
| Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | The exploration and management of earth’s crust resources is research-based (yes/no) Source: General principles of Earth’s crust policy until 2050 | Yes |
| SO2 32; NOx 18; VOC 10; PM2.5 15; NH3 1 | SO2 32; NOx 18; VOC 10; PM2.5 15; NH3 1 | SO2 32; NOx 18; VOC 10; PM2.5 15; NH3 1 | SO2 32; NOx 18; VOC 10; PM2.5 15; NH3 1 | Reduction in ambient air pollutant emissions compared to 2005, % Source: Environment Agency | Change in decrease in 2023: SO2 85.7; NOx 55.7; VOC 31.5; PM2.5 43.4; NH3 7. |
Table 17. Indicators and targets for the biodiversity, forestry and environmental management programme.
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 24 | 22 | 20 | 18 | Average duration of environmental impact assessment procedures in the agencies of the Ministry of Climate (in months) Source: Ministry of Climate | 28 |
| 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | Share of land area nationally protected for nature conservation purposes, % Source: Ministry of Climate | 20.8% (28%) |
| 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | Share of managed forest area in forest land Source: Ministry of Climate | 70.2% |
Table 18. R&D and business performance indicators and target levels
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | R&D financing planned in the state budget as a share of GDP (%)* Source: State budget and explanatory memorandum for RU | 0.96% |
| 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.75% | 1.75% | Level of private R&D expenditure of GDP Source: Statistics Estonia | 1.08% (2023) |
| 94.00% | 96.00% | 96.00% | 96.00% | Nominal labour productivity EU-27 average (%) Source: Eurostat | 77.50% (2023) |
| A strong innovator | A strong innovator | A strong innovator | A strong innovator | Ranking in the European Innovation Scoreboard (place in scoring group) Source: European Commission | A strong innovator |
Table 19. Indicators and target levels for the research system programme
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.3 | Percentage of Estonian articles among the most cited scientific articles in the world (%) Source: European Innovation Scoreboard | 10.5% |
| 40712 | 42417 | 43900 | 44770 | Contractual R&D volume of positively evaluated TA bodies per academic staff member (volume in EUR) Source: Baseline funding data, Statistics Estonia | 39,271 (2023) |
Table 20. Indicators and target levels of the knowledge transfer programme
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.7 | 3 | 3.3 | Number of researchers and engineers in the corporate and non-profit private sectors, number per 1,000 inhabitants Source: Statistics Estonia | 2.28 (2023) |
| 3.7 | 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | Investments by companies in intangible assets as a share of GDP (%, billion euros) Source: Statistics Estonia | 3.6% (1.4bn) |
Table 21. Indicators and target levels for the Entrepreneurship Environment Programme
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.00 | 33.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | Exports of goods and services, billion euros Source: Statistics Estonia | 30.10 (2024) |
| 62.95% | 63.40% | 64.00% | 64.00% | GDP per capita created outside Harju County, compared to the EU-27 Source: Statistics Estonia | 62.40% (2022) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Business B-ready Index Source: World Bank | n/a |
Table 22. Indicators and target levels in the performance area of agriculture and fisheries.
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36000 | 36000 | 36000 | 36000 | Value added in agriculture, forestry, fishery and food and beverage production per person employed, three-year moving average, EUR Source: Statistics Estonia | 41,738 |
| 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.81 | 0.82 | Trade balance for agricultural products and foodstuffs, export and import ratio Source: Statistics Estonia | 0.81 |
| 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | Share of Estonian consumers who prefer to buy domestic food, % Source: Institute of the Estonian Language | 59.00% |
| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per value of agricultural output, tonnes per thousand euros Source: EKUK/Statistics Estonia | 2.6(2023) |
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Food Safety Barometer Source: MoRAA | 9.34 |
Table 23. Bioeconomy Programme Indicators and target levels
7 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 990000 | 990000 | 990000 | 990000 | Area of agricultural area used, ha Source: Statistics Estonia | 982,440 |
| 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Share of added value generated by the entire supply chain in the total value added of the business sector, % Source: Eurostat | 6.4% (2023) |
| 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | Share of environmentally managed land, % Source: ARIB, Statistics Estonia | 92.59% |
| 45 | 50 | 60 | 60 | Number of healthy stocks Source: MoRAA | 42.00% |
| 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | Share of agricultural products and foodstuffs of Estonian origin in the total exports of goods of Estonian origin, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 14 |
| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per value of agricultural production Source: EKUK, Statistics Estonia | 2.6 (2023) |
Table 24. Food Safety Programme Indicators and target levels.
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | Consumer Confidence Index, % Source: MoRAA | 69% (2023) |
| 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | Level of antibiotic use (mg/PCU) Source: State Agency of Medicines | 42.5% |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Percentage of samples of residues of plant protection products exceeding the maximum level in food of Estonian origin, % Source: Agriculture and Food Board | 0 (2022) |
Table 25. Indicators and target levels in the performance area of the living environment, mobility and maritime affairs.
8 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 75 | 75 | 76 | 76 | Satisfaction with the living environment, % Source: Nationwide survey ‘Satisfaction with the living environment’ | 72.00% |
| 2194.98 | 2150.77 | 2119.69 | 2090.94 | Total greenhouse gas emissions from transport, million kilotonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Ministry of Climate (Climate Department) | 2437.77 (2023) |
| 59 | 65 | 66 | 67 | Share of bodies of water in good status (%) Source: Environment Agency | 52.00% (2023) |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Estonian shipping is internationally competitive Source: Shipping Industry Flag State Performance Table, https://www.ics-shipping.org/ | 3 (2023) |
| 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.9 | Resource productivity, EUR/kg Source: Eurostat | 0.86 (2023) |
Table 26. Indicators and target levels for the living environment and circular economy programme .
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 70.8 | - | 73.2 | - | Average satisfaction of residents with services in the field (architecture of buildings and structures, condition of buildings, waste management, possibilities for separate collection of waste), (%) Source: Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture, minuomavalitsus.ee | 65.58 |
| 19 | 20.00 | 21 | 22.0 | Rate of circulating material (%) Source: Statistics Estonia | 18.10 (2023) |
Table 27. Indicators and target levels of the marine and water programme
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Estonian shipping is internationally competitive Source: Shipping Industry Flag State Performance Table | 3 |
| 59 | 65 | 66 | 67 | Share of water bodies in good status (%) Source: Environment Agency | 52.00% (2023) |
| 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | Cargo turnover of ports, in millions of tonnes Source: Ministry of Climate | 21.5 |
| 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.5 | Number of passengers on international regular shipping services, million per year Source: Ministry of Climate | 8.3 |
Table 28. Indicators and target levels of the transport and mobility programme.
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 27 | 35 | 38 | 38 | Compliance of national roads in the TEN-T core network with the established requirements, % Source: Transport Administration | 26.00% |
| 60 | 70 | 80 | 80 | Share of the completed embankment with supported infrastructure of the Rail Baltica main line in the total length of the route, % Source: Ministry of Climate | 20.00% |
Table 29. Indicators and target levels of the land and spatial design programme
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.76 | Satisfaction with the living environment in Estonia Source: MoRAA | 0.74 |
Table 30. Indicators and targets of the regional development programme
6 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 | 46.8 | 46.8 | 46.8 | Share of population of Harju County in the population of Estonia, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 48.00% |
| 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | GDP generated outside Harju County as a share of Estonia’s GDP, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 38.30% (2023) |
| 56 | 57 | 58 | 58 | Credibility of the local government institution among the population, % Source: Eurobarometer | 52.50% |
| 80.8 | 80.9 | 81.2 | 81.2 | Employment rate of rural residents aged 20–64, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 80.40% |
| 62 | 62 | 63 | 63 | Satisfaction with local government services, % Source: minuomamunicipal.ee | 58.80% |
| 75 | 75 | 76 | 76 | Satisfaction with the living environment Source: minuomamunicipal.ee | 72.00% |
Table 31. Indicators and target levels of the public transport programme
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201581000 | 206390000 | 211175000 | 216338000 | Number of passengers on public transport Source: Transport Administration | 192391000 |
| 24.9 | 25 | 25.1 | 25.2 | Ticket revenue as a percentage of the cost of public transport Source: Transport Administration | 24.7 |
Table 32. Indicators and target levels of the digital society performance area
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | Satisfaction with public digital services Source: JDM Services Directory | 82.00% |
| 7.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 6 | Share of those who refused to communicate electronically with a public sector or service provider due to security risk reasons Source: Statistics Estonia | 8.20% |
| 84 | 86 | 88 | 89 | The share of Estonian households and companies that have the opportunity to connect to an internet connection of at least 100 Mbit/s, which can be increased up to 1 Gbit/s. Source: JDM | 81.00% |
Table 33. Indicators and target levels in the area of governance
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | Share of government employees in the working-age population of 20–64-year-olds (no increase), % Source: Statistics Estonia, Ministry of Finance | 15.9 |
| 44.6 | 44 | 42.5 | 40.6 | General government expenditure as a share of GDP (no increase), % Source: Eurostat | 44 |
Table 34. Indicator and target levels of the programme to support the Government of the Republic and the Prime Minister.
1 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Effectiveness of governance | 1.3 |
Table 35. Indicators and target levels of the financially intelligent state programme
8 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 | Nominal general government balance, % of GDP Source: Ministry of Finance | -1.5 |
| 35.2 | 35.3 | 35.6 | 35.3 | Taxes as share of GDP, % Source: Ministry of Finance | 35.2 |
| -1.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | Stability of tax policy (predictability), fluctuations due to tax changes below 1.5% of GDP, % Source: Ministry of Finance | 1 |
| 25.9 | 29.2 | 32 | 34.5 | Debt burden (% of GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Estonia | 23.4 |
| 8.5 | 8.1 | 8 | 7.5 | Liquid financial reserves as a share of GDP, % Source: Ministry of Finance | 12 |
| 30 | 32 | 34 | 35 | Capital market volume (exchange, crowdfunding, other non-bank financial intermediation, except pension funds and insurance) to GDP, % Source: Ministry of Finance | 32 |
Table 36. Indicators and target levels of the administrative policy programme.
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | Central government employee benefits as a percentage of GDP, % Source: Ministry of Finance | 6.9 |
| 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | Share of central government in employment (20-64),%,<= Source: Ministry of Finance | 9.1 |
| 82 | 82 | 82 | 88 | Statistics Consumer Satisfaction Index Source: Statistics Estonia | 84 |
Table 37. Indicators and target levels of the archiving programme.
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 135 | 155 | 180 | Number of archivists (institutions) who have transferred digital records to the National Archives Source: National Archives | 88 |
| 98 | 98 | 100 | 100 | Share of records stored in appropriate repositories in the National Archives, % Source: National Archives | 87 |
| 44 | 46.5 | 48.5 | 50 | Availability of records online (million images) Source: National Archives | 38.9 |
Table 38. Indicators and target levels of the reliable and effective judicial area
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status ‘free’ | Status ‘free’ | Status ‘free’ | Status ‘free’ | Rank in the World Freedom Rankings Source: Freedom House | Status ‘free’ |
| >0.81 | >0.81 | >0.81 | >0.81 | World Justice Project Rule of Law Index Source: World Justice Project | 0.82 |
| <15 | <15 | <15 | <15 | Estonia’s position in the International Rule of Law Index in the subcategory of the criminal justice system Source: World Justice Project | 9 |
| <130 | <120 | <110 | <110 | Number of prisoners per 100,000 inhabitants Source: Ministry of Justice and Digital Affairs | 117 |
Table 39. Indicators and target levels of the internal security performance area
14 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level 2024 |
| ≥ 94% | ≥ 94% | ≥ 94% | ≥ 94% | Share of people who consider Estonia a safe country, % Source: Ministry of the Interior, Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 88 |
| Share of people who consider the main concern in Estonia to be, % | |||||
| ≤ 3% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 3% | ≤ 3% | crime, | 2% |
| ≤ 12% | ≤ 12% | ≤ 12% | ≤ 12% | - immigration, | 8% |
| ≤ 1% | ≤ 1% | ≤ 1% | ≤ 1% | - terrorism | 1 |
Table 40. Indicators and target levels for the proactive and safe living environment programme
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 96% | ≥ 96% | ≥ 96% | ≥ 96% | Share of people who consider their place of residence safe % Source: Ministry of the Interior, Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 91 |
| ≥ 66% | ≥ 66% | ≥ 66% | ≥ 66% | Share of people who assess their skills to help themselves and others as sufficient in the event of an accident, % Source: Ministry of the Interior, Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 58 |
| ≥ 3,100 ≥ 750 ≥ 1,350 ≥ 180 > 120 | ≥ 3,200 ≥ 750 ≥ 1,400 ≥ 220 > 140 | ≥ 3,300 ≥ 800 ≥ 1,450 ≥ 250 ≥ 160 | ≥ 3,400 ≥ 800 ≥ 1,500 ≥ 270 > 180 | Number of internal security volunteers: Volunteer rescuers Voluntary maritime rescuers Assistant police officers Emergency Response Centre volunteers Assistant explosive ordnance disposal technician Source: Ministry of Interior | 2,872 752 1,235 156 53 |
Table 41. Indicators and target levels for the rapid and expert assistance programme
6 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 2,895 | < 2,895 | < 2,895 | < 2,895 | Number of offences affecting the safety of individuals in public places Source: Police and Border Guard Board | 3,058 |
| ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | People’s awareness of the emergency number 112, % Source: Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 96 |
| ≥ 97% | ≥ 97% | ≥ 97% | ≥ 97% | Satisfaction of the people with the processing of emergency notifications % Source: Emergency Response Centre | 88 |
| ≥ 93% | ≥ 93% | ≥ 93% | ≥ 93% | Satisfaction of the people with the resolution of rescue events % Source: Police and Border Guard Board | 93 |
| ≥ 90% | ≥ 90% | ≥ 90% | ≥ 90% | Satisfaction of the people with the work of the police % Source: Police and Border Guard Board, Estonian population safety survey | 76 |
| < 1 hour | < 1 hour | < 1 hour | < 1 hour | Average time of arrival of a search and rescue unit at the scene of an aircraft or maritime accident Source: Police and Border Guard Board | 37.15 min |
Table 42. Indicators and target levels of the solid internal security programme
15 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | n/a | ≥ 45% | ≥ 45% | Share of people who assess Estonia’s readiness to cope with a terrorist act, should it happen, as good % Source: Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 41 |
| 52 | n/a | 53% | 60% | Share of people who assess Estonia’s readiness to cope with hostile foreign of influence activities and the growth of misinformation as good, % Source: Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 52 |
| 65 | ≥ 65% | ≥ 65% | ≥ 65% | Share of people who find that Estonia’s external border is well protected, % Source: National Defence Public Opinion Survey, Ministry of Defence | 66 |
| 75 | ≥ 75% | ≥ 100% | ≥100% | Coverage of the land border by technical monitoring (including Lake Peipus, Narva River) % Source: Police and Border Guard Board | 64 |
| 60 | n/a | ≥ 60% | ≥ 60% | Share of people who consider their awareness of the risks of cybercrime to be good % Source: Public Opinion Survey on Internal Security | 52 |
| Share of people who consider drugs to be readily available % |
Table 43. Indicators and target levels of the citizenship, migration and identity management policy programme supporting Estonia’s development
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10% | ≤ 10% | ≤ 10% | ≤ 10% | Share of population who consider immigration to be the main concern in the country % Source: Standard Eurobarometer | 8 |
| ≥ 40/ 55% | ≥ 40/ 55% | ≥ 40/ 55% | ≥ 40/ 55% | Share of persons of other nationalities with a strong and average national identity % Source: Integration monitoring | 43/ 46 |
| ≥ 40% | ≥ 45% | ≥ 45% | ≥ 45% | Share of people who consider Estonia’s readiness to cope with large-scale refugee immigration to be good % Source: STU | 40 |
| ≥ 74% | ≥ 74% | ≥ 74% | ≥ 74% | Share of Estonian residents who use the national eID (MID, ID1) at least once a year % Source: Ria | 82 |
| ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | ≥ 95% | Satisfaction with the e-service of applying for an identity document Estonian citizens % Source: Police and Border Guard Board | 93 |
Table 44. Indicators and target levels of the smart and innovative internal security programme
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10 ≤6.0 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 10 ≤ 8.0 ≤ 15 | ≤ 10 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 10 ≤8.0 ≤ 15 | ≤ 10 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 10 ≤ 8.0 ≤ 15 | ≤ 10 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 6.0 ≤ 10 ≤ 8.0 ≤ 15 | Voluntary staff turnover rate 1) Ministry of the Interior 2) Police and Border Guard Board 3) Rescue Board 4) Emergency Response Centre 5) Social Insurance Board 6) IT and Development Centre at the Estonian Ministry of the Interior Source: Authorities | 8.1 7.2 3.7 6.2 6.6 9.5 |
| ≥ 3.5 | ≥ 3.5 | ≥ 3.5 | ≥ 3.5 | Number of applications for one study place in an open competition in higher education Source: Estonian Academy of Security Sciences | 3.2 |
| 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.6 | 0.61 | R&D&I budget as a percentage of the budget of the area of government Source: Ministry of Interior | 0.62 |
Table 45. Indicators and target levels in the performance area of foreign policy
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stable | stable | stable | stable | Regional security Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs | unstable |
| 87 | 86 | 85 | 84 | Estonia's presence and influence in the world (general position) Source: Elcano Global Presence Report.(150 countries in 2023); The same indicator in Statistics Estonia (does not update previous years) | 85 |
| 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.28% | 0.29% | Estonia’s development co-operation as a share of gross national product (GNP) Source: OECD DAC/Ministry of Foreign Affairs | 0.20% |
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | Estonia’s presence and influence among countries with up to 5 million inhabitants in the world Source: Elcano Global Presence Report | 11 |
Table 46. Indicators and target levels of the foreign policy programme
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ensured | ensured | ensured | ensured | Estonia’s security, independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and constitutional order guaranteed against external threats Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs | ensured |
| >=10% | >=10,00% | >=10% | >=10% | Estonia’s security policy image in the media (positive coverage in DE, FR, UK, and US media) Source: Government Office SITKE | 29% |
Table 47. Indicators and target levels of the security and national defence performance area
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yes | yes | yes | yes | Allied forces are permanently stationed in Estonia Source: Ministry of Defence | YES |
| >5.00% | >5.00% | >5.00% | >5.00% | The level of defence expenditure of GDP by the NATO method (%) Source: Ministry of Defence | 3.32% |
| 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | Willingness of the residents to participate in defence operations if Estonia is attacked (active will to defend) Source: Ministry of Defence | 61.00% |
| ≥ 3,960 | ≥ 4,070 | ≥ 4,180 | ≥ 4,290 | Number of active servicemen at the end of the year at least Source: Defence Resources Agency | ≥ 3,687 |
| YES | YES | YES | YES | Number of combat-ready units (manned, equipped, trained) based on RKAK 2022-2031 implementation plan Source: the Defence Forces | VV Pursuant to clause 5 (1) 3) of Regulation No 262 of 20 December 2007, state secrets at the level of SECRET |
Table 48. Total defence expenditure (EUR million)
7 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Total defence expenditure | TOTAL 2026–2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2241 | 2359 | 2637 | 2836 | Defence expenditure according to NATO method | 10075 |
| 5.06 | 5.09 | 5.44 | 5.6 | % of GDP | 5.29 |
| 69.6 | 76.4 | 80.9 | 87.6 | including targeted support allocated to the Defence League | 314.5 |
| 110.7 | 116.1 | 0 | 0 | including military assistance to Ukraine (0.25 %) | 226.8 |
| 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Additional ring-fenced allocations | 10.7 |
| -122.1 | -117.8 | 120 | 120 | Spreading defence costs SBS 2026-–2029 decision | 0 |
Table 49. Indicators and target levels for the military national defence and deterrence programme
1 rows, 7 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) | 2026_2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with information access restrictions | with information access restrictions | with information access restrictions | with information access restrictions | The units are manned, equipped and trained in accordance with the National Defence Development Plan decisions Source: the Defence Forces | with information access restrictions | with information access restrictions |
Table 50. Indicators and target levels in the performance area of culture and sports
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a* | Participation of residents in cultural life, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 79.00% (2023) |
| 56.00% | n/a | 62.00% | n/a | Proportion of people engaged in physical activity on a regular basis (twice a week for 30 min) of the 16–64 age group % Source: National Institute for Health Development | 44.10% |
Table 51. Indicators and target levels of the cultural programme.
11 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Participation of Estonian children and young people in culture, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 94.70% (2023) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a* | Average gross monthly wages of persons employed in the cultural sector compared to the Estonian average, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 78.00% |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Satisfaction with the availability and accessibility of culture, % Source: Statistics Estonia | 66.00% (2023) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Access to culture on digital platforms, % Source: Ministry of Culture | 25.00% (2023) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Cultural heritage awareness among Estonian citizens Source: Ministry of Culture | 60 (2023) |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sustainability of Estonian cultural research Source: Ministry of Culture | 1.27% |
Table 52. Indicators and target levels of the sports programme
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250000 | 260000 | 260000 | 260000 | Number of recreational sports enthusiasts in sports clubs and sports schools. Source: Estonian Sports Register | 241985 |
| 62.5 | 64 | 65.5 | 65.5 | Percentage of young people (aged 5-19) participating in sport in sports clubs and schools over the whole age group, % Source: Estonian Sports Register and Statistics Estonia | 55 |
| 4300 | 4350 | 4400 | 4450 | Number of coach vocations Source: Estonian Sports Register | 4253 |
Table 53. Indicators and target levels of the cohesive society performance area.
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.00% | n/a | n/a | 79.00% | Proportion of people with a strong or moderate sense of Estonian identity, Estonians, % (higher right) Source: Monitoring the integration of Estonian society (EIM) | n/a |
| 89.00% | n/a | n/a | 86.00% | Proportion of people with a strong or moderate sense of Estonian identity, other nationalities, % (higher better) Source: Monitoring the integration of Estonian society (EIM) | n/a |
| 38.00% | 38.00% | 38.00% | 38.00% | Satisfaction with the engagement of residents in the local government (rather satisfied and very satisfied) (greater better) Source: - | 47.20% |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sense of unity with Estonia among Estonians living abroad, % (greater better) Source: Study related to Estonian foreign communities and return | 84.00% (2021) |
| 75 | 77 | 77 | 79 | Recommended satisfaction index with the e-services of the population register (SI) (higher better) Source: Ministry of Interior | 78 |
Table 54. Indicators and target levels for integration, including adaptation programme
3 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | n/a | n/a | 79 | Proportion of people with a strong or moderate sense of Estonian identity, % Source: EIM | 73.00% (2023) |
| 89 | n/a | n/a | 86 | Proportion of people with a strong or moderate sense of Estonian identity, other nationalities, % Source: EIM | 89.00% (2023) |
| 87 | n/a | n/a | 88 | Sense of unity with Estonia among Estonians living abroad, % Source: Study related to Estonian foreign communities and return | 84.00% (2021) |
Table 55. Indicators and target levels of the Estonian Community Programme
4 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Level of participation in volunteer work, % (higher) Source: Study on volunteering | 49% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Estonian NGO Viability Index (lower better) Source: United States Development Cooperation Agency (USAID) | 2.1 |
| 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | Percentage of people who feel they do not have the opportunity to influence society, % (lower better) Source: Monitoring the integration of Estonian society | 59.0% |
Table 56. Indicators and target levels for the smart population census programme
5 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | Percentage of actual data on residence in the population register, % (higher right) Source: Statistics Estonia | 79.0% |
| 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | The number of queries made to the population register (million) (higher is better) Source: Ministry of Interior | 254 |
| 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | Number of population register e-services (higher is better) Source: Ministry of Interior | 18 |
| 75 | 77 | 77 | 79 | Recommended satisfaction index with the e-services of the population register (higher is better) Source: Ministry of Interior | 78 |
Table 57. Indicators and target levels of the programme for funding political parties
2 rows, 6 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Indicator / target level | Latest Actual Level (2024) |
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Use of budget % Source: Ministry of Interior | 100% |
Table 58. Objective of the budgetary balance of the general government sector and comparison with the previous budget strategy
4 rows, 6 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Headline balance target (% of GDP) | -1.3 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| Target of the previous fiscal strategy (% of GDP) | -3 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -1.2 | |
| Difference | 1.7 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.5 |
Table 59. SBS revenue and expenditure measures 2026–2029
17 rows, 5 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Measure | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP |
| Tax changes, including changes in income tax and motor vehicle tax | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| Other revenue, including dividend shifting, changes in fees and fines, tax revenue from expenses, etc. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Total revenue measures | -0.38% | -0.33% | -0.38% | -0.36% |
| Interest expense | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Table 60. Volume of revenue and expenditure of the general government sector taking into account fiscal policy decisions
2 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | 2024 million EUR | 2024 % of GDP | 2025 % of GDP | 2026 % of GDP | 2027 % of GDP | 2028 % of GDP | 2029 % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue forecast of the general government | 16872.8 | 42.3 | 42.9 | 41.6 | 40.9 | 41.4 | 40.8 |
| Expenditure forecast of the general government | 17561.6 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 44.4 |
Table 61. General government balance 2025–2029
9 rows, 6 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Nominal budgetary balance of the general government (% of GDP) | -1.3 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| Central government | -0.8 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -3.3 |
| Social security funds | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Local authorities | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| Nominal budget balance of the general government (EUR million) | -527 | -1979 | -2076 | -1844 | -1838 |
Table 62. Cyclically-adjusted balance 2023–2029 (% of GDP)
14 rows, 9 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 | column_7 | column_8 | column_9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-22 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| 1. Real GDP growth (%) | 2.7 | -2.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2. General government budget position | -0.9 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -1.3 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| 3. Interest payments | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 4. Real potential GDP growth (%) | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 4.a Labour force contribution to pot. growth (%) | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Table 63. One-off measures and their impact in 2023–2029 (EUR million)
4 rows, 9 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 | column_7 | column_8 | column_9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-22 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Income tax on profit distributed by banks, million euros | 116.4 | 41.5 | ||||||
| Total, EUR million | -2 | 0 | 116.4 | 41.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total, % of GDP | -0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Table 64. Structurally adjusted budgetary balance 2023–2029 (% of GDP)
4 rows, 9 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 | column_7 | column_8 | column_9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-22 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| 1. Cyclically-adjusted budgetary balance | -1.4 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
| 2. One-off measures | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3. Structurally adjusted budgetary balance (3)=(1)-(2) | -1.3 | -1 | 0 | 0.6 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
Table 65. Impact of fiscal policy decisions on the revenue and expenditure of the general government
4 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | 2024 (EUR million) | 2024 % of GDP | 2025 % of GDP | 2026 % of GDP | 2027 % of GDP | 2028 % of GDP | 2029 % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue forecast of the general government | 16827.8 | 42.2 | 42.9 | 41.6 | 40.9 | 41.4 | 40.8 |
| Measures of revenue policy | -0.15 | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.38 | -0.36 | ||
| Measures of expenditure policy | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.32 | -0.5 | -0.51 | ||
| Expenditure forecast of the general government | 17516.6 | 44 | 44.1 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 44.4 |
Table 66. Revenue and expenditure of the summer 2025 forecast of the Ministry of Finance without taking into account fiscal policy decisions
2 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | 2024 (EUR million) | 2024 % of GDP | 2025 % of GDP | 2026 % of GDP | 2027 % of GDP | 2028 % of GDP | 2029 % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue forecast of the general government | 16,778,6 | 42.2 | 43 | 41.9 | 41.1 | 41.5 | 40.9 |
| Expenditure forecast of the general government | 17,379,9 | 44 | 44 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 43.6 |
Table 67. Revenue and expenditure of the budget of the general government in 2024–2029
38 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | 2024 (EUR million) | 2024 % of GDP | 2025 % of GDP | 2026 % of GDP | 2027 % of GDP | 2028 % of GDP | 2029 % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government | Budgetary balances by levels of the general government |
| 1. General government | -688.8 | -1.7 | -1.3 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| 2. Central government | -565.0 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -3.3 |
| 4. Local governments | -160.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 5. Social security funds | 37.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| General government | General government | General government | General government | General government | General government | General government | General government |
Table 68. General government expenditure by government functions (COFOG) (% of GDP)
11 rows, 8 columns
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | column_1 | COFOG code |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 1. General government services | 1 |
| 3.6 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2. National defence* | 2 |
| 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3. Public order and security | 3 |
| 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4. Economy | 4 |
| 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 5. Environmental protection | 5 |
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6. Housing and utilities economy | 6 |
Table 69. Health Insurance Fund revenue and expenditure in 2019–2029
17 rows, 13 columns
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | EUR million | 2019–2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1476 | 1654 | 1931 | 2051 | 2265 | 2385 | 2370 | 2500 | 2638 | 2770 | 2897 | Revenue | 96 |
| 12.1 | 16.8 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | -0.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.6 | ...year-on-year growth | ||
| 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | ...% of GDP | |
| 1334 | 1382 | 1490 | 1634 | 1807 | 1925 | 2025 | 2135 | 2252 | 2365 | 2475 | ...the health insurance part of the social tax | 86 |
| 1438 | 1637 | 1795 | 1891 | 2149 | 2361 | 2491 | 2603 | 2720 | 2840 | 2963 | Costs | 106 |
| 13.9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | ...year-on-year growth |
Table 70. Income and expenditure of the Unemployment Insurance Fund in 2019–2029
14 rows, 13 columns
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | EUR million | 2019–2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210 | 215 | 232 | 266 | 314 | 338 | 342 | 358 | 377 | 396 | 415 | Revenue | 98 |
| 2.8 | 8 | 13.7 | 11 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | ...growth | ||
| 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ...% of GDP | |
| 172 | 539 | 241 | 232 | 285 | 316 | 340 | 373 | 373 | 386 | 392 | Costs | 127 |
| 212.5 | -55.3 | -3.7 | 22.9 | 11 | 7.5 | 9.8 | -0.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | ...growth | ||
| 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ...% of GDP |
Table 71. Tax expenditure in the state budget in 2026–2029 (EUR million)
28 rows, 8 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Tax expense | Tax expense_2 | Provision | Governancefunction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.7 | 18.1 | 18.5 | 18.8 | 1. | VAT rate of 9% for books, workbooks, periodicals and digital publications | Clause 15 (2) 5) of the Value-Added Tax Act | education |
| 108.8 | 110 | 111.3 | 112.4 | 2. | VAT rate of 9% on medicinal products and medical devices | Clause 15(2) 2) of the Value-Added Tax Act | health |
| 30.8 | 31.3 | 32 | 32.7 | 3. | VAT rate of 13% for accommodation services | Clause 15 (2) 4) of the Value-Added Tax Act | Recreation, Culture and Religion |
| 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4. | Change in the VAT accounting procedure for partly or fully unpaid invoices | § 291 of the Value-Added Tax Act | economy |
| 42.3 | 45.6 | 47.8 | 49.1 | 5. | Basic allowance at retirement age | §235 of the Income Tax Act | social protection |
| 20.1 | 21.2 | 22.1 | 23 | 6. | Deduction of training expenses | § 26 of the Income Tax Act | education |
Table 72. Change in the debt burden of the general government sector in 2024
13 rows, 6 columns
| column_1 | 31 December 2023 | 31 December 2023_2 | 31 December 2024 | 31 December 2024_2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR million | % of GDP | EUR million | % of GDP | % of GDP | |
| General government | 7,736.3 | 20.2 | 9,353.1 | 23.5 | 3.3 |
| Domestic debt | 1,931.4 | 5.0 | 2,241.1 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| External debt | 5,804.9 | 15.1 | 7,112.0 | 17.8 | 2.7 |
| Central government | 7,638.8 | 19.9 | 9,107.0 | 22.9 | 2.9 |
| Domestic debt | 2,147.5 | 5.6 | 2,403.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 |
Table 73. Debt burden of the general government sector 2024–2029 (% of GDP)
14 rows, 7 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.5 | 1. Total debt | 23.3 | 25.9 | 29.2 | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| 3.3 | 2. Change in debt burden | -0.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) | Contributions to stock-flow adjustment: (2=3-4+5+6) |
| -0.8 | 3. Contribution of nominal GDP growth | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 |
| -1.1 | 4. Primary budget balance | -0.8 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.0 | -2.7 |
| 0.6 | 5. Interest payments | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Table 74. Liquid financial assets, i.e. reserves of the general government 2024–2029 (EUR million, % of GDP)
8 rows, 7 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4779 | Total financial reserves (EUR million) | 3959 | 3767 | 3766 | 3860 | 3817 |
| 3035 | of which central government | 2352 | 2294 | 2390 | 2558 | 2585 |
| 450 | of which local authorities | 433 | 421 | 406 | 394 | 368 |
| 1294 | including social security funds | 1173 | 1052 | 970 | 908 | 865 |
| 12 | Total financial assets (% of GDP) | 9.5 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8 | 7.5 |
| 7.6 | of which central government | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
Table 75. External grants across funds and areas of government (thousands euros)
33 rows, 5 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | By Fund |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | By Fund |
| 1,997,148 | 1,485,246 | 1,074,649 | 821,300 | TOTAL |
| 20,779, | 21,168, | 21,168, | 21,168, | European Maritime, Aquaculture and Fisheries Fund 2021-2027 |
| 206,171, | 206,207, | ,206,207 | 206,207 | European Agricultural Guarantee Fund |
| 107,981 | 95,123 | 82,840 | 47,794 | European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development |
| 8,232 | 5,307 | 3,471 | 1,450 | European Territorial Cooperation Programme |
Table 76. The most important external assumptions of the forecast (percentages)
9 rows, 10 columns
| column_1 | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast_2 | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast_3 | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast_4 | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast_5 | Assumptions of the MoF’s summer 2025 forecast_6 | European Commission (May 2025 forecast) | European Commission (May 2025 forecast)_2 | European Commission (May 2025 forecast)_3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2024 | 2025* | 2026* | |
| 1. Euribor, 3 months (annual average) | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 2. Long-term interest rate of the euro zone (annual average) | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 3. EUR/USD exchange rate (annual average) | 1082 | 1.119 | 1.142 | 1.142 | 1.142 | 1.142 | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| 4. Nominal effective exchange rate | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5. World economic growth | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
Table 77. Gross domestic product forecast 2025–2029 (percentages)
17 rows, 8 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2024 Level 3 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.1 | 1. Real GDP growth | 28946 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 3.9 | 2. Nominal GDP growth | 39848 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Sources of growth | |||||||
| 0 | 3. Private consumption expenditure (including NGOs) | -1 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.1 | |
| 1.8 | 4. Final consumption expenditure of the general government | -1.9 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -0.5 | |
| -6.1 | 5. Gross fixed capital formation | 5.9 | 7.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
Table 78. Forecast of prices for 2024-2028 (percentages)
9 rows, 8 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2024_2 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015=100 | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| 160.5 | 1. GDP deflator | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 154.5 | 2. Private consumption deflator | 3.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 155.1 | 3. Harmonised consumer price index | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 154.0 | 3a. Consumer price index | 3.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 174.7 | 4. Consumption expenditure deflator of the general government | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
Table 79. Labour market forecast for 2025–2029 (15–74-year-olds) (percentage)
6 rows, 8 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2024 level | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | ||
| 0.6 | 1. Employment, by number of persons employed | 698.71) | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7.6 | 3. Unemployment rate | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | |
| -0.7 | 4. Labour productivity, by number of persons employed | 41.42) | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 6.3 | 6. Compensation of employees | 20,179.33) | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 5.7 | 7. Compensation per employee (6./1.) | 28.94) | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
Table 80. Balance of payments forecast for 2025–2029 (% of GDP)
6 rows, 9 columns
| 2023 | 2024 | column_1 | 2013-2022 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 0.3 | 1. Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world | 1.9 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| -1.7 | -1.3 | 1a. Current account | -0.3 | -1.3 | -2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| 0.9 | 0.3 | 2. Balance of goods and services | 1.8 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| -2.6 | -1.6 | 3. Balance of primary and secondary income | -2.1 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -2.1 |
| 1.2 | 1.7 | 4. Capital account | 2.2 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| -2 | 0.1 | 5. Errors and omissions | -0.1 |
Table 81. 2024–2028 budgetary balance of the general government sector
9 rows, 7 columns
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | column_1 | 2025 state budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -2.6 | -2.8 | Structurally adjusted budgetary position of the general government (% of GDP) | -0.9 |
| -1 | -4 | -3.8 | -2.9 | -2.8 | Nominal budgetary balance of the general government (% of GDP) | -3 |
| -0.5 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -2.6 | -2.4 | Central government | -2.2 |
| -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | Social security funds | -0.4 |
| -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | Local governments | -0.4 |
| -436 | -1779 | -1777 | -1417 | -1401 | Nominal budget position of general government (EUR million) | -1250 |
Table 82. Government budget revenue and expenditure 2024–2029
39 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 | column_6 | column_7 | column_8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| EUR million | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP | % of GDP | |
| Budgetary balance by levels of the general government | |||||||
| 1. General government | -601.4 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | -3.8 | -2.9 | -2.8 |
| 2. Central government | -489.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -2.6 | -2.4 |
| 4. Local governments | -152.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Table 83. Government expenditure by function of government (COFOG) (% of GDP)
11 rows, 8 columns
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | column_1 | COFOG code |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 1. General government services | 1 |
| 3.6 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2. National defence | 2 |
| 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3. Public order and security | 3 |
| 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4. Economy | 4 |
| 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 5. Environmental protection | 5 |
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6. Housing and utilities | 6 |
Table 84. Comparison with forecast SBS 2025–2028
20 rows, 7 columns
| 2024 | column_1 | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth (%) | ||||||
| -1 | Previous version | 3.3 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | - |
| -0.1 | Current update | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 0.9 | Difference | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | - |
| Nominal GDP growth (%) | ||||||
| 2.7 | Previous version | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | - |
Table 85. The impact of rising interest rates
2 rows, 5 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Impact of rising interest rates by 100 basis points (1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 131 | 151 | 170 | Difference in interest expenditure compared to baseline scenario, million |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Difference in interest expenditure compared to the baseline scenario, % of GDP |
Table 86. Risk scenario (percentage)
13 rows, 8 columns
| column_1 | Risk scenario | Risk scenario_2 | Risk scenario_3 | Risk scenario_4 | Difference from Baseline Forecast | Difference from Baseline Forecast_2 | Difference from Baseline Forecast_3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| GDP in current prices (billion euros) | 39.8 | 41.7 | 43.6 | 45.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| Real GDP growth | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.3 |
| Nominal GDP growth | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| CPI | 3.5 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Real growth of domestic demand | -1.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
Table 87
141 rows, 5 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Total funds | -20811543 | -21142514 | -21332816 | -21797292 |
| Funds with limits | -6198262 | -6357662 | -6538143 | -6676229 |
| Funds without limits | -14613281 | -14784853 | -14794673 | -15121063 |
| Unallocated budget by funds and activities | 0 | -32463 | -11813 | -38089 |
| Funds with limits | 0 | -32463 | -53121 | 15760 |
Table 88
175 rows, 5 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| TOTAL RESULTS | -150.7 | -107.7 | -81.9 | -72.4 |
| Ministry of Defence | 45.2 | 35.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Revenues related to the procurement of military equipment and supplies for countries targeted by EU defence cooperation | 44.2 | 34.4 | ||
| SF21+ technical assistance revenue | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Clarification of income from fines and other pecuniary penalties | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Table 89
181 rows, 5 columns
| column_1 | column_2 | column_3 | column_4 | column_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Total investments | -1,091,762 | -883,771 | -985,789 | -1,051,400 |
| Total investment grants | -1,299,005 | -1,186,772 | -673,406 | -385,880 |
| the Chancellery of the Riigikogu | , | , | , | , |
| Total investments | -2,257 | -2,907 | -2,203 | -2,203 |
| IT Investments | -439 | -1,187 | -483 | -483 |
Table 87. Volumes of allowances sold by Estonia during the period 2021–2029 and the expected revenue from auctioning allowances according to the baseline scenario of the summer 2025 economic forecast of the Ministry of Finance (EUR million)
2 rows, 7 columns
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | column_1 | 2021-2025 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2978 | 2918 | 3077 | 3174 | Auction quantity (according to the MoC) (million allowances) | 20583 | 32730 |
| 195.24 | 199.75 | 141.45 | 150.04 | Revenue forecast (EUR million) | 1438.93 | 2125.42 |
Table 88. Measures planned from the EU greenhouse gas Emission Trading System revenues for the 2013-2020 period State Budget Strategy 2021–2024 performance areas (distribution of auctioning revenue received at the end of 2020, million euros)
4 rows, 3 columns
| Measure | Total 2013-2020 | Responsible |
|---|---|---|
| Promoting energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in public sector buildings | 97312 | Minister for Regional Affairs and Agriculture and Minister for Finance |
| Flood risk mitigation | 5367 | Minister for Energy and the Environment |
| Pilot projects to achieve climate policy objectives | 38054 | Minister for Energy and the Environment |
| Earmarking of 50% of the additional revenue from the renewal of the so-called ‘forecast bases’ for 2020 (co-financing of the Rail Baltica project from the state budget in 2020; sustainable transport projects in rail transport and water transport (ferry) | 53478 | Minister for Infrastructure |
Table 89. Indicative volume of support for measures and sub-measures planned from EU greenhouse gas Emissions Trading System revenues for the 2021–2030 period (based on the revenue forecast according to the Ministry of Finance Summer 2025 economic forecast, EUR million)
64 rows, 9 columns
| Measure (2021-2030 trading period)* | 2021-2024 (revenue)* | 2025** (revenue) | 2026** (revenue) | 2027** (revenue) | 2028** (out of revenue) | 2029** (out of revenue) | Total (from 2021–2029 revenue) | Responsible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% of revenues, 100% from 2024 for climate policy objectives* (EUR million); (EU ETS climate and energy target under Directive (EU) 2023/959 to which the measure contributes) | 724.666 | 244.235 | 195.240 | 199.755 | 141.452 | 150.040 | 1,655.388 | |
| Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport | Sustainable transport |
| Purchase of additional electric trains (to increase the availability of public transport) (f) | 48.417 | 2.809 | 4.949 | 56.175 | MoC: Minister for Infrastructure | |||
| Sustainable public transport: Supporting the construction of Rail Baltica (f) | 298.282 | 31.197 | 112.256 | 86.350 | 53.103 | 3.645 | 584.833 | MoC: Minister for Infrastructure |
| Rail Baltic rolling stock and rolling stock related equipment (f) | 1.000 | 49.000 | 50.000 | MoC: Minister for Infrastructure | ||||
| Developing sustainable public transport (f), including: | 22.000 | 23.000 | 45.000 |
Table 90. Projection of accrual-based cost of planned measures and sub-measures from EU greenhouse gas emission allowance trading revenues for the period 2021-2030 until 2029 (EUR)
61 rows, 8 columns
| Measure (2021-2030 trading period) | Responsible | budget of the action | accrual-based cost 2025 | accrual-based expenditure 2026 | accrual-based expenditure 2027 | accrual-based cost 2028 | accrual-based cost 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure (2021-2030 trading period) | Responsible | accrual-based cost 2025 | accrual-based expenditure 2026 | accrual-based expenditure 2027 | accrual-based cost 2028 | accrual-based cost 2029 | |
| Measure (2021-2030 trading period) | Responsible | accrual-based cost 2025 | accrual-based expenditure 2026 | accrual-based expenditure 2027 | accrual-based cost 2028 | accrual-based cost 2029 | |
| Making municipal education buildings energy efficient | MoER | 14540000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Investment in a compensatory measure to enable the construction of wind energy production capacity in North-East Estonia | MoD | 37000000 | 17,268,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green energy solutions for small islands | MoD | 1800000 | 681,978 | 977,731 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sustainable public transport: Supporting the construction of Rail Baltica, including: | MoC | 584833625 | 84,443,553 | 158,009,735 | 209,920,525 | 85,101,771 | 411,278 |
Table 91. Programmes supported by the funds of the Modernisation Fund related to Estonia (indicative forecast, EUR million)
5 rows, 10 columns
| Programme | 2021-2023 | 2024* | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | Responsible | MF contribution 2021-2030 (indicative order of magnitude)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme on energy efficiency and renewable energy in public buildings, including: | 108.93 | 58.44 | 61.83 | 52.8 | 50.96 | 44.8 | 41.86 | Programme phase 1 (approval 2021) EUR 170 million; phase 2 (approval 2024), EUR 250 million; with reference to the possibility of an increase | |
| Central government buildings sub- programme | 108.93 | 23.38 | 24.73 | 21.12 | 20.38 | 17.92 | 16.74 | MoF | Programme phase 1 (approval 2021) EUR 170 million; phase 2 (approval 2024), EUR 250 million; with reference to the possibility of an increase |
| Local Government Buildings Sub- programme | 108.93 | 35.06 | 37.1 | 31.68 | 30.57 | 26.88 | 25.12 | MoRAA | Programme phase 1 (approval 2021) EUR 170 million; phase 2 (approval 2024), EUR 250 million; with reference to the possibility of an increase |
| Low-emission (sustainable) public transport development programme | 63.55 | 34.09 | 36.07 | 30.8 | 29.73 | 26.13 | 24.42 | MoC | Programme phase 1 (approval 2021) EUR 130 million; phase 2 (application submitted 2024), EUR 80 million; with reference to the possibility of an increase |
| Total | 172.48 | 92.53 | 97.9 | 83.59 | 80.68 | 70.93 | 66.28 | approx. EUR 630 million |